FFAC Recap - Week 9: Talkin Bout Playoffs
Kind of. Let me explain.
It’s been a quiet couple of weeks around here but that’s mostly because…election? Democracy? IDK some other matters on people’s minds besides football. BUT WE’RE BACK.
Kind of.
You see, I’ve done the math on playoff percentages (WE’RE BACK!), but also, the NFL just approved a contingency plan in the event that the season should be cut short and start playoffs with more teams due to a COVID-19 outbreak. So, we always knew this was a possibility, but with cases rising across the country and cases steadily impacting NFL teams, it may end the party early which would be such a bummer for this league, but you’d get your money back. For now, we carry on.
Recap
Don’t worry, I know that tease has you itching for playoff stats, so I’ll keep this relatively short and to the point. There are some things I want to point out, tho.
Let’s start, with our good pal, Cody vs Ben. Cody continues to make it work, moves to 8-1, and has effectively clinched a playoff spot. He’s got a 3 game lead over the #2 seed with 4 games to go, and the wins to this point secures enough of head to head tie breakers that he’s in. Congrats, Cody. Ben falls to 5-4 along with literally half the league, but I don’t want to get ahead of myself.
On the flip side, Kelly & Fireball, despite a win over Shelby by Kelly, are effectively eliminated, sitting at 2-7, and similar to Cody, 3 games behind a playoff spot with 4 weeks to go, and without the tiebreakers to give them a chance. Truly a bummer for Kelly whom we convinced to rejoin after being relegated the season prior, and sitting at the bottom of the league. As for Fireball, for the first time since joining the league in 2017, will not make the playoffs. Pretty impressive 3 year run, but a 4th consecutive berth was not meant to be. Ryan & Danny can tie that consecutive playoff appearance record if both manage to hold on this season.
Jay beat Stefan (barely), MJ beat Fireball, Ryan beat Zach, & Danny beat Adam. So…
Playoff Picture
Here we go folks, it’s that time of the season:
Cody 8-1 * Clinched
MJ 5-4 (80.52%)
Ryan 5-4 (72.04%)
Ben 5-4 (62.48%)
Zach 5-4 (61.76%)
Adam 5-4 (50.08%)
In the hunt:
Jay 5-4 (47.64%)
Danny 4-5 (41%)
Stefan 4-5 (30.08%)
Shelby 4-5 (23.96%)
This season has been crazy for obvious reasons, but it’s not an exaggeration to say it’s been the most competitive one yet. MJ & Ryan get a boost to their chances despite being 1 of 6 teams at 5-4 due to being #1 & #2 respectively on the points for front, but realistically 2-6 is up for grabs, and week by week this list could look very different. If the NFL season manages to hold on…
For reference, 2019 at this point in the season saw similarly an 8-1 team, but 3 6 win teams and only the 6th spot really up for grabs (Cody did end up overtaking Zach for that spot, but 1-5 stayed true the rest of the way). This time, however, we have NINE teams either tied or within a game of each other. Plus, the point differential between us is so…everywhere, it’s difficult to really point where this will go. Example, Adam, our current #6 thanks to head to head, is actually 6.5 points BEHIND #10 seed in Shelby, despite a 1 game lead. And Danny is currently the only team out of 4 to break the 1000 point mark on the season, not to be sitting in a playoff spot.
So, to quickly refresh your memories on how this playoff statistic comes to be, there are a few key things taken into consideration here: current total points for, projected points for ranking, current standings, remaining match-ups, and literally over 2k simulations of each match-up (based on the previously mentioned stats) to come up with a probability of playoff. Again, not that much weight is put on the Yahoo projections, rather I go off your rosters, how you’ve performed to this point in the season, and the likelihood of continuing that trend vs falling back into Yahoo’s projections. The human touch, if you will. Sorry, I make that joke every year.
Scenarios will likely not occur until the Week 11 recap (two weeks from now), but Week 10 is going to be critical.
Week 10 Preview
Why? Well, because we have 2 5-4 matches, a 4-5 match…and the #2 scoring team is playing the #11 scoring team, and Ben is playing Kelly.
However, for my money, the matchup of the week is Danny vs Shelby. Both 4-5, and a loss here all but ends their season. Shelby, hi, how’s LA? Hope you’re doing chill, please lose to me this week.
On the flip side, we’re guaranteed 2 5-5 teams, so the loser between Danny & Shelby will still only be 1 game back from a couple teams in the hunt, but the available spots to grab will shrink.
That’ll be #2 MJ vs #6 Adam, and #5 Zach vs #7 Jay. MJ can’t seem to catch a break with CMC likely to miss this week with a shoulder injury, yet despite that still sits #2 and has outscored everyone in the league 9 weeks in. Can’t count him out. If recent performances are any indicator, the Zach v Jay match will likely be low scoring, albeit close.
Now, Fireball & Kelly aren’t exactly free wins, but going up against Ryan & Ben respectively is a touch draw. Fireball could prove to keep it close yet, and Ben suffers from a Week 9 bye week mess. Nothing is certain.
Finally, Cody looks to lock in that #1 seed with a win over Stefan, while Stefan tries to end the 3 game losing streak. Eat shit, Stefan. Sorry. Not sorry. But sorry.
Danny
Adam
Jay
Ryan
Cody
Kelly
Those are this weeks picks from yours truly.
XOXO, Gossip Girl
- Danny
