FFAC Recap: Week 11 - It’s Football

It’s an interesting time for football fans. You know exactly what I mean by that. Thanksgiving Day is always fun for the NFL, sure, but this year we’re also blessed with the greatest sporting event in the world at the same time, the World Cup. Lucky for us all, unless you’re uncultured and hate futbol, we don’t really have to choose! There’s really only 1 slight overlap between the Buffalo v Detroit match and the 1pm Brazil v Serbia game, so it’s nonstop football and football going on all day! What a time to be alive.

Against my better judgement, however, if USA beats England on Black Friday, then it’s soccer.

Recap

My goodness did things get interesting after the last week of games! Ben officially clinched so we’re down to 3 spots, but those have major implications the rest of the way. Still very much up for grabs for basically anyone not named Alex. Sorry, Alex, even with the dub.

Let’s start there, then, as Alex upsets Jay in pretty convincing fashion, 121-76. Jay’s team has been on a real roller coaster, the last month or so, scoring high and then low on a cycle. Alex, on the other hand, has been trending up, putting up his year high in points. Too little too late for playoff purposes, but suddenly it looks like he can play upset to close out the year. Not a given win for Ryan, Cody, and myself coming up. Jay falls to 5-6.

Another upset, Spencer saves his season for now and beats Stefan 127-118. Luckily for Stefan this didn’t cause him to lose the 2 seed but Ben is now on his heels only back 17 points in seeding, both 8-3. Spencer, at 4-7, saved his season and with 2 5-6 teams at the 5 & 6 (how fun), playoffs are entirely in his hands with 3 critical matches coming up.

Adam leaped over Jay & Zach to the 4 spot while also hurting Mike’s chances winning 107-80. However, 2 of his 3 remaining games are against the 1 & 2 seeds so while he’s in the best non clinched position today, it’s no guarantee. And Mike, very much like Spencer, Ryan, and myself, have critical matches coming up as the 4 4-7 teams.

Speaking of Ryan, Ben did him no favors, falling 114-95. As mentioned above, Ben has clinched a playoff spot and is only a few points away from the 2 seed and subsequent first round bye. To be fair, unless your name is Fireball, the points for margin is razor thin. And yet, Ryan is still alive but I don’t need to be redundant. All the 4-7 teams are basically in the same position, and realistically, they’re all vying for a shot at 1 spot.

Fireball further anchored his #1 seed and is now effectively 1 win (or a loss to Stefan & Ben) away from locking in his spot. The man has absolutely dominated this regular season, and this time Zach was on the receiving end. Like Jay, technically he’s still on the inside with the 6 spot, but the sharks are circling.

Finally, Cody falls to ya boi 81-77 in maybe the weakest game of the year (it’s actually a week 3 Ben win over myself if anyone is checking the math). Keeps me alive, however, rounding out the 4-7 teams. Cody, on the other hand, missed a huge opportunity to slide into a playoff spot with both Jay and Zach losing, but he has been sliding of late, going 1-3 in his last 4. Not a great time to do that, but he’s still alive and in better position than all the 4-7 teams.

Playoff Picture

Here’s what you all are looking for:

1. Fireball 10-1 (Clinched, 95% as #1)

2. Stefan 8-3 (Clinched, 52% as #3)

3. Ben 8-3 (Clinched, 54% as #2)

4. Adam 6-5 (73%, 32% as #4)

5. Jay 5-6 (60%, 26% as #4)

6. Zach 5-6 (60%, 21% as #5 or #6)

   In the Hunt:

7. Cody 5-6 (27%)

8. Ryan 4-7 (19%)

9. Mike 4-7 (18%)

10. Spencer 4-7 (9%)

11. Danny 4-7 (12%)

OK OK there’s a bit to explain here across the board. It’s all due to upcoming matchups, points, and record vs. The spreadsheet is outputting Ben with the slightest of advantages to take Stefan’s 2 spot with an outside chance that even Adam could leap up. This is mostly being driven by the Week 13 matchup between the 2 and the fact that Stefan runs into Fireball this week. Ben has the softer remaining games. To boot, Stefan’s final game is against Jay which is why his highest seed probability is also at #4. Don’t take anything for granted, people.

And yet, Jay & Zach (and Adam to a lesser extent) aren’t exactly in the clear. Cody is still on their heels despite losing last week, and Spencer & myself suddenly have an outside chance compared to last weeks very unlikely numbers.

Week 12 Preview

For all intents and purposes, this is it, this is the all important week for all the teams still in the hunt. Some major, major implications in every single match this week. The 4-7 teams need a little bit of help from some of the other matches, sure, but the head to heads have fate in their own hands. To make it all better, this week is the last 1 v 2 seed game of the year as Fireball and Stefan face off with first round bye implications. Oh man I’m getting excited already, this shit’s gonna be awesome.

I’m running late for Thanksgiving football so no spreads:

Adam (6-5) v Spencer (4-7)
Zach (5-6) v Mike (4-7)
Fireball (10-1) v Stefan (8-3)
Ryan (4-7) v Alex (3-8)
Cody (5-6) v Jay (5-6)
Danny (4-7) v Ben (8-3)

It’s going to be such a fun weekend. I hope everyone has a safe day of the turkey or otherwise, strap in, sit back, and enjoy the ride.

-Danny “AKA The Pardoned Turkey AKA Ham is Better AKA 100lb Tamale” M