FFAC Recap: Week 10 - It’s Under The Sauce
On the cusp of maybe a snowstorm of (recorded) historic proportions, the NFL has deposed us of a Winter Bowl in Buffalo this coming weekend, moving the Browns at Bills game to Detroit. Something about public health & safety or whatever.
However, according to my calculations, there is a 100% possibility of a mathematical recap as FFAC heads into the final leg of the season. With 4 weeks to go before playoffs begin, and just under an hour before TNF kickoff, I’m back with the regular recaps to close out the year and bring you:
Playoff Picture
That’s right team! The spreadsheet is BACK and I’m taking this week as an opportunity to reset and get back to regular weekly posts including playoff percentages!
For those of you whom are new, or just need a reminder, every year I have a spreadsheet that runs simulations based on Yahoo inputs and some of my own, for the upcoming weeks based on points for, projected points scored upcoming, and matches. Like, really, it’s a big spreadsheet:
Old screenshoot, there’s 2500 rows and matchup columns depending on how many weeks left, this is just the calculations tab, the percentage outputs and yahoo/my inputs live on other tabs.
There’s an old blog post from 2018 that adds a tiny bit more color. The important thing, is that a lot of you (even myself, somehow) still have a shot of MAKING the playoffs. This is NOT a champion predictor, just likelihood of making the playoffs.
Here are the first results of 2022:
Fireball 9-1 (Clinched, 82% as #1)
Stefan 8-2 (Clinched, 53% as #2)
Ben 7-3 (99%, 45% as #3)
Jay 5-5 (70%, 28% as #4)
Zach 5-5 (60%, 23% as #5)
Adam 5-5 (51%, 21% as #6)
In The Hunt:
Cody 5-5 (35%)
Ryan 4-6 (29%)
Mike 4-6 (21%)
Spencer 3-7 (3%)
Danny 3-7 (4%)
Alex 2-8 (FADE THE FLAIR, ELIMINATED)
Congrats to Fireball & Stefan, they have officially clinched playoff spots. Ben effectively has as well but a sequence of events exist that leaves him on the outs. Extremely unlikely, but still. However, the interesting thing is that the top 2 spots are still up for grabs for that sweet sweet first round bye. After the #3 spot, the numbers start dropping fast, 4-6, as it feels like it is almost every year, is wide open, all those 5-5 and 4-6 records makes things interesting. Hell, even Spencer and myself still have a way, WAY outside shot. The reason for that 1% discrepancy despite being a lower seed on my end is Spencer’s 1-5 division record to my 2-4, despite losing the head to head tie breaker. Kinda wonky but the scenario is there.
As far as Alex goes, well rookie, it’s been fun. Lucky for you, you can still play spoiler and there’s still next years choice of draft pick to win in the consolation ladder so don’t pull a Spencer and nuke your team.
Week 11 Preview
ALL OF THAT MEANS - it’s going to be a wild final 4 weeks.
Adam (-9) v Mike
Zach (+15!) v Fireball
Ben (+4.5) v Ryan
Stefan (-17!) v Spencer
Jay (+2) v Alex
Danny (+1) v Cody
I’m rolling with Adam, Fireball, Ben, Stefan, Alex!, & myself.
World Cup Bracket will be posted in slack by EOD Friday.
Godspeed - Danny “AKA Math Blaster AKA Mavis Bacon AKA Cellsius AKA When’s Your Birthday?” M
