FFAC Recap - Week 13: Don’t Talk About Playoffs
Remember when I cursed Jay by saying he’d be this years champ? Bro has had the bottom seed locked for like a month now. Ouch. At least consolation ladder still matters for true bottom seed, that Aaron Rodgers book is calling.
OK! It’s PLAYOFF PERCENTAGES TIME BAYBEEEE.
But first, we have to fade a flair:
Zach has been eliminated from playoff contention.
Pretty simple for Zach, he’s got 8 losses and no remaining playoff spots will go to anyone with more than 7 losses.
Of course, Adam & Ryan have secured not only playoffs, but 1st round bye’s at 9-4 each.
That leaves 8 teams vying for 4 playoff spots. Here are the current standings with percentages:
Ryan (LOCKED)
Adam (LOCKED)
Serrano (7-6 67%, 27% as 4 seed)
Danny (7-6 59%, 26% as 4 seed)
Pat (7-6 59%, 30% as 6 seed)
Stefan (7-6 45%, 15% as 5 seed)
On the cusp
7. Fireball (6-7, 55% on h2h tiebreaker over Stefan)
8. Alex (6-7, 39%)
9. Ben (6-7, 34%)
10. Mike (6-7, 29%)
Scenarios
Pretty straight forward for Serrano, Danny, Pat, & Stefan. Win, and you’re in. Matchup to watch is Danny v Pat, one of them will get in for sure, and then it’s up to tiebreakers for the other.
Fireball - Win AND Loss to Stefan (holds h2h over Stefan) OR Win & Loss to Danny/Pat AND score enough points to overtake the PF tiebreaker (H2H is tied to each) AND neither Ben or Mike overtake in PF (Ben & Mike hold h2h tiebreaker each)
Alex - Win AND Loss to Stefan (holds h2h over Stefan) AND overtake Serrano/Fireball in PF (no h2h tiebreaker)
Ben - Win AND Loss to Stefan AND overtake Stefan in PF AND Loss to Fireball (Fireball holds h2h tiebreaker)
Mike - Win AND Loss to Stefan AND Loss to Alex (both hold h2h tiebreaker) AND Loss to Danny AND overtake Danny AND Fireball in PF
Mike is in the weirdest scenario because while he holds h2h tiebreaker over Pat, Ben, & Fireball, he needs to jump the points while some of the higher seed tiebreakers untangle in his favor.
A 7 way 7-7 tie (Danny/Pat, Stefan, Serrano, Fireball, Alex, Mike, Ben) is possible. It’s too difficult to say exactly how the tiebreaker will go because PF AND H2H is all over the place. A lot of these H2H tiebreakers are really like Rock, Paper, Scissors. Right now, if points for remained the same in that tie scenario, the only safe team would be the winner of Danny v Pat. Everyone else is at the mercy of the other matchup’s points scored.
Week 14 Preview
Danny (-18) v Pat
Stefan (+1) v Ryan
Ben (-8) v Jay
Serrano (-2) v Fireball
Adam (-18) v Alex
Mike (+14) v Zach
Eyes glued this weekend, folks.
yvan eht nioj.
